如果我们回到经济学101，这种效果是清晰可见的。石油供应的持续减少表现为供给曲线向左的一系列小幅变化以及沿需求曲线的相关变动。由于汽油是一种正常的商品，经济学101告诉我们，我们将有一系列的价格上涨和一系列的汽油消费总量减少。最终价格将达到汽油将成为极少数消费者购买的利基商品的地步，而其他消费者将找到天然气的替代品。当这种情况发生时，地面上仍然会有大量的石油，但消费者会发现对他们来说更具经济意义的替代品，因此对汽油的需求很少（如果有的话）。政府应该在燃料电池研究上花更多钱吗？不必要。已经存在许多标准内燃机的替代品。在美国大部分地区，汽油价格低于每加仑2.00美元，电动汽车并不是很受欢迎。如果价格显着提高，比如4.00美元或6.00美元，我们预计会有很多电动车在路上行驶。混合动力汽车虽然不是内燃机的严格替代品，但会降低对汽油的需求，因为这些汽车可以获得两倍于许多类似汽车的里程数。这些技术的进步，使电动汽车和混合动力汽车的生产成本更低，更有用，可能使燃料电池技术变得不必要。请记住，随着汽油价格的上涨，汽车制造商将有动力开发以较便宜的替代燃料运行的汽车，以赢得厌倦高油价的消费者的业务。替代燃料和燃料电池的昂贵政府计划似乎没有必要。当一种有用的商品，如汽油，变得稀缺时，经济总会有成本，就像我们发现无限形式的能源对经济有利一样。这是因为经济的价值大致以其产生的商品和服务的价值来衡量。请记住，除非出现任何不可预见的悲剧或故意措施限制石油供应，否则供应量不会突然下降，这意味着价格不会突然上涨。 1970年代的情况大不相同，因为我们看到世界市场上的石油数量突然大幅下降，原因是一个石油生产国卡特尔故意削减产量以提高世界价格。这与由于耗尽导致的石油供应缓慢的自然下降有很大的不同。因此，与1970年代不同，我们不应期望在泵上看到大线并且隔夜价格大幅上涨。这是假设政府不试图通过配给来“解决”石油供应减少的问题。鉴于1970年代教给我们的东西，这是不太可能的。总之，如果允许市场自由运作，从物理意义上来说，石油供应永远不会耗尽，尽管未来汽油很可能成为一种利基商品。消费者模式的变化以及石油价格上涨带来的新技术的出现将阻止石油供应的实际耗尽。虽然预测世界末日场景可能是让人们了解你的名字的好方法，但他们对未来可能发生的事情的预测很差。
英国莱斯特大学商业Essay代写:经济学101
If we go back to Economics 101, this effect is clearly visible. The continued decline in oil supply is reflected in a series of small changes in the supply curve to the left and related changes along the demand curve. Since gasoline is a normal commodity, Economics 101 tells us that we will have a series of price increases and a reduction in the total amount of gasoline consumed. The final price will reach the point where gasoline will become a niche commodity for a very small number of consumers, while other consumers will find alternatives to natural gas. When this happens, there will still be a lot of oil on the ground, but consumers will find alternatives that are more economical for them, so there is little demand (if any) for gasoline. Should the government spend more on fuel cell research? unnecessary. There are already many alternatives to standard internal combustion engines. In most parts of the United States, gasoline prices are less than $2.00 per gallon, and electric vehicles are not very popular. If the price increases significantly, such as $4.00 or $6.00, we expect a lot of electric cars to drive on the road. Hybrids, while not a strict replacement for internal combustion engines, will reduce the demand for gasoline, as these vehicles can earn twice as many miles as similar cars. Advances in these technologies have made electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles cheaper and more productive, potentially making fuel cell technology unnecessary. Keep in mind that as gasoline prices rise, automakers will have the incentive to develop cars that run on cheaper alternative fuels to win the business of consumers who are tired of high oil prices. An expensive government plan to replace fuel and fuel cells does not seem necessary. When a useful commodity, such as gasoline, becomes scarce, there is always a cost to the economy, just as we find that an infinite form of energy is good for the economy. This is because the value of the economy is roughly measured by the value of the goods and services it produces. Keep in mind that unless there are any unforeseen tragedies or deliberate measures to limit the supply of oil, the supply will not suddenly drop, which means that prices will not suddenly rise. The situation in the 1970s was very different because we saw a sudden sharp drop in the amount of oil in the world market, as a cartel in the oil producing country deliberately cut production to raise world prices. This is very different from the natural decline in the slow supply of oil due to depletion. Therefore, unlike the 1970s, we should not expect to see big lines on the pump and the price rises overnight. This is assuming that the government does not attempt to “solve” the problem of reduced oil supply through rationing. Given the things taught to us in the 1970s, this is unlikely. In short, if the market is allowed to operate freely, the oil supply will never be exhausted in the physical sense, although future gasoline is likely to become a niche commodity. Changes in consumer patterns and the emergence of new technologies brought about by rising oil prices will prevent the actual depletion of oil supplies. While predicting apocalyptic scenes may be a good way to get people to know your name, they have a poor prediction of what might happen in the future.
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